Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
